Simulating pandemic emergency scenarios considering mobility patterns through an agent-based model

ABSTRACT

One of the main policies to contain a pandemic spreading is to reduce people mobility. However, it is not easy to predict its actual impact, and this is a limitation for policy-makers who need to act effectively and timely to limit virus spreading. Data are fundamental for monitoring purposes;however, models are needed to predict the impact of different scenarios at a granular scale. Based on this premise, this paper presents the first results of an agent-based model (ABM) able to dynamically simulate a pandemic spreading under mobility restriction scenarios. The model is here used to reproduce the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and considers factors that can be attributed to the diffusion and lethality of the virus and population mobility patterns. The model is calibrated with real data (considering the first wave), and it is based on a combination of static and dynamic parameters. First results show the ability of the model to reproduce the pandemic spreading considering the lockdown strategy adopted by the Italian Government and pave the way for scenario analysis of different mobility restrictions. This could be helpful to support policy-making by providing a strategic decision-tool to contrast pandemics. © 2021 Copyright for this paper by its authors.