SARS-CoV-2 chronological genomic evolution and epidemiology in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as affected by vaccination, conflict and socioeconomical disparities: a population-based cohort study

ABSTRACT

Objective To describe the chronological genomic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and its impact on public health in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Methods This study analysed all available SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences, metadata and rates of COVID-19 infection from the MENA region retrieved from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data database from January 2020 to August 2021. Inferential and ‎descriptive statistics were conducted to describe the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. Results Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in the MENA region indicated that the variants in January 2020 predominately belonged to the G, GR, GH or O clades and that the most common variant of concern was Alpha. By August 2021, however, the GK clade dominated (57.4% of all sequenced genomes), followed by the G clade (18.7%) and the GR clade (11.6%). In August, the most commonly sequenced variants of concern were Delta in the Middle East region (91%);Alpha (44.3%) followed by Delta (29.7%) and Beta (25.3%) in the North Africa region;and Alpha (88.9%), followed by Delta (10%) in the fragile and conflict-affected regions of MENA. The mean proportion of the variants of concern among the total sequenced samples differed significantly by country (F=1.93, P=0.0112) but not by major MENA region (F=0.14, P=0.27) or by vaccination coverage (F=1.84, P=0.176). Conclusion This analysis of the genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 provides an essential description the virus evolution and its impact on public health safety in the MENA region. As of August 2021, the Delta variant showed a genomic advantage in the MENA region. The MENA region includes several fragile and conflict-affected countries with extremely low levels of vaccination coverage and little genomic surveillance, which may soon exacerbate the existing health crisis within those countries and globally.