Ghost Games: Crowds, Referee Bias, and Home Advantage in European Football Leagues

ABSTRACT

Using a five-year data set including the crowd-less games in the 2020 English, Spanish, Italian, and German first division football leagues and multivariate regression analysis, this paper estimated how fans influence home field advantage. Consistent with previous studies, the estimates showed that in games with crowds, referees gave fewer fouls, yellow cards, and red cards but more penalty kicks to the home team than to the away team. Removing the fans from the stadium eliminated these home advantages coming through referee decisions. Removing fans reduced yellow and red cards given to away teams but did not change cards given to home teams. There was not a similar asymmetry for fouls and penalty kicks. These results suggest that crowds influenced referee judgments about how severe an infraction was more than they influenced decisions about whether a foul occurred. The addition of VAR had little impact on referee decisions and no effect on the home advantage in goal differential. Despite the home bias in referee decisions when crowds were in the stadium, fouls, cards, and penalty kicks played a relatively small role in determining home advantage in game outcomes and most of the home advantage remained after fans were removed.