The emergence, spread and vanishing of a French SARS-CoV-2 variant exemplifies the fate of RNA virus epidemics and obeys the Mistigri rule.
J Med Virol
; 2022 Aug 28.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2229042
ABSTRACT
The nature and dynamics of mutations associated with the emergence, spread, and vanishing of SARS-CoV-2 variants causing successive waves are complex. We determined the kinetics of the most common French variant ("Marseille-4") for 10 months since its onset in July 2020. Here, we analyzed and classified into subvariants and lineages 7453 genomes obtained by next-generation sequencing. We identified two subvariants, Marseille-4A, which contains 22 different lineages of at least 50 genomes, and Marseille-4B. Their average lifetime was 4.1 ± 1.4 months, during which 4.1 ± 2.6 mutations accumulated. Growth rate was 0.079 ± 0.045, varying from 0.010 to 0.173. Most of the lineages exhibited a bell-shaped distribution. Several beneficial mutations at unpredicted sites initiated a new outbreak, while the accumulation of other mutations resulted in more viral heterogenicity, increased diversity and vanishing of the lineages. Marseille-4B emerged when the other Marseille-4 lineages vanished. Its ORF8 gene was knocked out by a stop codon, as reported in SARS-CoV-2 of mink and in the Alpha variant. This subvariant was associated with increased hospitalization and death rates, suggesting that ORF8 is a nonvirulence gene. We speculate that the observed heterogenicity of a lineage may predict the end of the outbreak.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Topics:
Variants
Language:
English
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Jmv.28102
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