Behavioral economic methods predict future COVID-19 vaccination.

ABSTRACT

Increasing vaccine utilization is critical for numerous diseases, including COVID-19, necessitating novel methods to forecast uptake. Behavioral economic methods have been developed as rapid, scalable means of identifying mechanisms of health behavior engagement. However, most research using these procedures is cross-sectional and evaluates prediction of behaviors with already well-established repertories. Evaluation of the validity of hypothetical tasks that measure behaviors not yet experienced is important for the use of these procedures in behavioral health. We use vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic to test whether responses regarding a novel, hypothetical behavior (COVID-19 vaccination) are predictive of later real-world response. Participants (N = 333) completed a behavioral economic hypothetical purchase task to evaluate willingness to receive a hypothetical COVID-19 vaccine based on efficacy. This was completed in August 2020, before clinical trial data on COVID-19 vaccines. Participants completed follow-up assessments approximately 1 year later when the COVID-19 vaccines were widely available in June 2021 and November 2021 with vaccination status measured. Prediction of vaccination was made based on data collected in August 2020. Vaccine demand was a significant predictor of vaccination after controlling for other significant predictors including political orientation, delay discounting, history of flu vaccination, and a single-item intent to vaccinate. These findings show predictive validity of a behavioral economic procedure explicitly designed to measure a behavior for which a participant has limited-to-no direct prior experience or exposure. Positive correspondence supports the validity of these hypothetical arrangements for predicting vaccination utilization and advances behavioral economic methods.

A goal of behavioral science is to develop methods that can predict future behavior to inform preventive health efforts and identify ways people engage in positive health behaviors. Behavioral economic methods apply easy to use and rapid assessment tools to evaluate these mechanisms of health behavior engagement. Here, we show how similar methods can be applied to novel behaviors yet experienced like intentions to vaccinate against COVID-19. We find that responses on a behavioral economic task designed to measure vaccination likelihood closely corresponded to the likelihood of being vaccinated 1 year later. This prediction was above and beyond common predictors of vaccination including demographics like political orientation and age. These findings provide support for these novel methods in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, specifically, and behavioral health, broadly.