Analysis and Simulation of the Spread of COVID-19 in Indonesia Using SIR-FV Modeling with Optimization

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 virus pandemic in Indonesia has been going on since March 2020 and is still ongoing with conditions that need to be watched out for. This can be seen from the distribution of the daily active cases addition in Indonesia which is still changing dynamically. An alternative solution that can help to analyze countermeasures for the virus spread is modeling and simulating the spread of cases to estimate pandemic conditions that may occur in Indonesia. A common and widely used epidemiological-based model is the SIR model, which groups individuals affected by a pandemic into several compartments. Using this modeling and utilizing the concept of optimization technology, the modeling process can be carried out more efficiently and accurately. A model is developed, one of the derivatives of SIR modeling, namely SIR-FV, based on the concept of optimization to estimate and simulate various virus spread scenarios. There are 2 scenarios developed for analysis, namely the vaccination program scenario and the contact rate scenario. Based on the scenario simulation, it was found that the vaccination program could have a positive impact on efforts to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic more effectively when compared to the scenario without vaccination. The contact rate scenario also has a significant impact. However, the simulation also shows that if the vaccination program is not supported by adequate health protocols, it will not have any impact on the prevention effort. These results apply to the results of the SIR-FV model. Overall, it can be concluded that the developed model can carry out all of its functions as needed, with the level of accuracy through the MAPE metric reaching 0.012 for the SIRFV model. © 2022 IEEE.