Prediction of novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic trend based on ARIMA model

ABSTRACT

In order to improve the speed and efficiency of the Department of epidemic prevention and control, this paper uses ARIMA model to train and fit the number of confirmed cases on the basis of the historical epidemic diagnosis information of Guangdong Province. By dealing with the stability of time series, determining the parameters of ARIMA model and testing residual white noise, the ARIMA model is established to predict the number of confirmed epidemic cases, and the number of confirmed epidemic cases in March may 2021 in Guangdong Province is accurately predicted, so as to help the epidemic prevention and control departments improve the accuracy and effectiveness of epidemic control. © 2022 SPIE.