Modeling and Analysis of COVID-19 Spread: The Impacts of Nonpharmaceutical Protocols.

ABSTRACT

In this study, the extended SEIR dynamical model is formulated to investigate the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) via a special focus on contact with asymptomatic and self-isolated infected individuals. Furthermore, a mathematical analysis of the model, including positivity, boundedness, and local and global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points in terms of the basic reproduction number, is presented. The sensitivity analysis indicates that reducing the disease contact rate and the transmissibility factor related to asymptomatic individuals, along with increasing the quarantine/self-isolation rate and the contact-tracing process, from the view of flattening the curve for novel coronavirus, are crucial to the reduction in disease-related deaths.