Inferring risks of coronavirus transmission from community household data.
Stat Methods Med Res
; 31(9): 1738-1756, 2022 09.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2263276
ABSTRACT
The response of many governments to the COVID-19 pandemic has involved measures to control within- and between-household transmission, providing motivation to improve understanding of the absolute and relative risks in these contexts. Here, we perform exploratory, residual-based, and transmission-dynamic household analysis of the Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey data from 26 April 2020 to 15 July 2021 in England. This provides evidence for (i) temporally varying rates of introduction of infection into households broadly following the trajectory of the overall epidemic and vaccination programme; (ii) susceptible-Infectious transmission probabilities of within-household transmission in the 15-35% range; (iii) the emergence of the Alpha and Delta variants, with the former being around 50% more infectious than wildtype and 35% less infectious than Delta within households; (iv) significantly (in the range of 25-300%) more risk of bringing infection into the household for workers in patient-facing roles pre-vaccine; (v) increased risk for secondary school-age children of bringing the infection into the household when schools are open; (vi) increased risk for primary school-age children of bringing the infection into the household when schools were open since the emergence of new variants.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pandemics
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
/
Variants
Limits:
Child
/
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Stat Methods Med Res
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
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