A multilayer network model for studying the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented in response to COVID-19

ABSTRACT

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are essential for the effective prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the scenarios for disease transmission are complicated and varied, and it remains unclear how real-world networks respond to the changes in NPIs. Here, we propose a multi-layer network combining structurally fixed social contact networks with a time-varying mobility network, select the COVID-19 outbreak in two metropolitans in China as case studies, and assess the effectiveness of NPIs. Human mobility, both in relatively fixed places and in urban commuting, is considered. Enclosed places are simulated by three different types of social contact networks, while urban commuting is represented by a time-varying commute network. We provide a composite framework that captures the heterogeneity and time variation of the real world and enables us to simulate large populations with low computational costs. We give out a thorough evaluation of the effectiveness of NPIs (i.e., work from home, school closure, close-off management, public transit limitation, quarantine, and mask use) under certain vaccine coverage varying with implementation timing and intensity. Our results highlight the strong correlation between the NPI pattern and the epidemic mitigation effect and suggest important operational strategies for epidemic control. Copyright © 2022 Chen, Guo, Jiao, Liang, Li, Yan, Huang, Liu and Fan.