The Impact of Forest Certification on the Ternary Margins of China’s Forest Product Export

ABSTRACT

Forest certification as a typical green trade measure has been gradually adopted by developed countries. Although it can promote the upgrading of forest products’ trade structure, it also threatens the stability of export growth. However, most studies have focused on the impact of forest certification on the total volume of forest product exports, but less on the impact on the growth structure. This study used the cross-country panel data and an extended gravity model to empirically analyze the impact of forest certification on the ternary margins of China’s forest products export to 39 countries that have introduced green trade measures from 2006 to 2019. The results show that the growth of China’s export of forest products is primarily driven by the quantitative margin, followed by the price margin. Forest certification in the trading partner countries has a significant positive impact on the price margin and a significant negative effect on the quantitative margin of China’s forest products. Furthermore, the effect on the quantitative margin is greater than that on the price margin, while the impact on the extensive margin is not significant. The study provides a scientific basis for responding to the forest certification measures, deepening cooperation with trading countries on forest products, and strengthening the mutual recognition and coordination of forest certification systems.