The Analysis of Dynamic Processes of Virus Transmission: How Could Diagnostic Tests and Vaccinations Can Stop COVID-19 Pandemic?
Value in Health
; 26(6 Supplement):S176, 2023.
Article
in English
| EMBASE | ID: covidwho-20237581
ABSTRACT
Objectives:
COVID-19 reached its fourth year of pandemic since 2020. The repeated waves of infections have been driven by multiple factors such as pathological traits of variants, diagnostic accuracy, and vaccination conditions. This study revisits and analyzes the dynamic processes of viral transmission to generate new scientific knowledge. Method(s) A cascade model of viral transmission from one case to another was developed, and theoretically analyzed how the number of infected cases at time t, D+[t], can be changed at time t+1, D+[t+1], considering six parameters 1) klevel of transmission, 2) Rt effective reproduction number, 3) rho capture rate of infected cases, 4) theta immunity protection rate in individuals, 5) epsilon evasion rate from vaccines, and 6) Sn test sensitivity. Result(s) The formula which associates D+[t] with D+[t+1] was given as follows D+[t+1] = K.D+[t], where K = {(1-Sn) + (1-rho) / rho}{1-Rtk (1-theta(1-epsilon))k} / {1-Rt (1-theta(1-epsilon))}. Also, assuming K be smaller than 1, the lower limit of test sensitivity to stop the viral transmission was formulated Sn > {Rt (1-theta(1-epsilon))-Rtk(1-theta(1-epsilon))k} / {(1-Rtk(1-theta(1-epsilon))k)rho}. In example computations, the formula indicated that a one-off PCR test with the sensitivity of 85% would not be sufficient to contain highly contagious infections such as the Omicron variants, and that it would be practically impossible to control the situation with the immune-evasive sub-variants in circulation. Conclusion(s) The theory developed in this study broadens the science on evidence-based public health and will be useful for outcomes studies and informed decisions on public policy for pandemic control.Copyright © 2023
adult; animal experiment; animal model; communicable disease; conference abstract; coronavirus disease 2019; diagnostic test accuracy study; effective reproduction number; female; human; immunity; male; nonhuman; pandemic; public health; public policy; theoretical study; vaccination; virus transmission; tin; vaccine
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
EMBASE
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Observational study
Topics:
Vaccines
/
Variants
Language:
English
Journal:
Value in Health
Year:
2023
Document Type:
Article
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS