Forecasting COVID-19 Vaccination Rates using Social Media Data

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the global community, and vaccination has been recognized as a crucial intervention. To gain insight into public perceptions of COVID-19 vaccines, survey studies and the analysis of social media platforms have been conducted. However, existing methods lack consideration of individual vaccination intentions or status and the relationship between public perceptions and actual vaccine uptake. To address these limitations, this study proposes a text classification approach to identify tweets indicating a user's intent or status on vaccination. A comparative analysis between the proportions of tweets from different categories and real-world vaccination data reveals notable alignment, suggesting that tweets may serve as a precursor to actual vaccination status. Further, regression analysis and time series forecasting were performed to explore the potential of tweet data, demonstrating the significance of incorporating tweet data in predicting future vaccination status. Finally, clustering was applied to the tweet sets with positive and negative labels to gain insights into underlying focuses of each stance. © 2023 ACM.