The Role of "Hierarchical and Classified Prevention and Control Measures (HCPC)" Strategy for SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Guangzhou: A Modeling Study.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Delta variant of SARS-COV-2 has replaced previously circulating strains around the world in 2021. Sporadic outbreaks of the Delta variant in China have posed a concern about how to properly respond to the battle against evolving COVID-19. Here, we analyzed the "hierarchical and classified prevention and control (HCPC)" measures strategy deployed during the recent Guangzhou outbreak. METHODS: A modified susceptible-exposed-pre-symptomatic-infectious-recovered (SEPIR) model was developed and applied to study a range of different scenarios to evaluate the effectiveness of policy deployment. We simulated severe different scenarios to understand policy implementation and timing of implementation. Two outcomes were measured magnitude of transmission and duration of transmission. The outcomes of scenario evaluations were presented relative to the reality case (i.e., 368 cases in 34 days) with 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: Based on our simulation, the outbreak would become out of control with 7 million estimated infections under the assumption of the absence of any interventions than the 153 reported cases in reality in Guangzhou. The simulation on delayed implementation of interventions showed that the total case numbers would also increase by 166.67%-813.07% if the interventions were delayed by 3 days or 7 days. CONCLUSIONS: It may be concluded that timely and more precise interventions including mass testing and graded community management are effective measures for Delta variant containment in China.