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Prediction of Covid-19 disease using machine-learning-based models
Machine Learning for Healthcare Systems: Foundations and Applications ; : 109-129, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-20241481
ABSTRACT
According to Chinese health officials, almost 250 million people in China may have caught Covid-19 in the first 20 days of December. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic and its global spread, there is a significant impact on our health system and economy, causing many deaths and slowing down worldwide economic progress. The recent pandemic continues to challenge the health systems worldwide, including a life that realizes a massive increase in various medical resource demands and leads to a critical shortage of medical equipment. Therefore, physical and virtual analysis of day-to-day death, recovery cases, and new cases by accurately providing the training data are needed to predict threats before they are outspread. Machine learning algorithms in a real-life situation help the existing cases and predict the future instances of Covid-19. Providing accurate training data to the learning algorithm and mapping between the input and output class labels minimizes the prediction error. Polynomials are usually used in statistical analysis. Furthermore, using this statistical information, the prediction of upcoming cases is more straightforward using those same algorithms. These prediction models combine many features to predict the risk of infection being developed. With the help of prediction models, many areas can be strengthened beforehand to cut down risks and maintain the health of the citizens. Many predictions before the second wave of Covid-19 were realized to be accurate, and if we had worked on it, we would have decreased the fatality rate in India. In particular, nine standard forecasting models, such as linear regression (LR), polynomial regression (PR), support vector machine (SVM), Holt's linear, Holt-Winters, autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), and autoregressive combined moving average (ARIMA), are used to forecast the alarming factors of Covid-19. The models make three predictions the number of new cases, deaths, and recoveries over the next 10 days. To identify the principal features of the dataset, we first grouped different types of cases as per the date and plotted the distribution of active and closed cases. We calculated various valuable stats like mortality and recovery rates, growth factor, and doubling rate. Our results show that the ARIMA model gives the best possible outcomes on the dataset we used with the most minor root mean squared error of 23.24, followed by the SARIMA model, which offers somewhat close results to the AR model. It provides a root mean square error (RMSE) of 25.37. Holt's linear model does not have any considerable difference with a root mean square error of 27.36. Holt's linear model has a value very close to the moving average (MA) model, which results in the root mean square of 27.43. This research, like others, is also not free from any shortcomings. We used the 2019 datasets, which missed some features due to which models like Facebook Prophet did not predict results up to the mark;so we excluded those results in our outcomes. Also, the python package for the Prophet is a little non-functional to work on massive Covid-19 datasets appropriately. The period is better, where there is a need for more robust features in the datasets to support our framework. © 2023 River Publishers.
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Collection: Databases of international organizations Database: Scopus Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Machine Learning for Healthcare Systems: Foundations and Applications Year: 2023 Document Type: Article

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Collection: Databases of international organizations Database: Scopus Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Machine Learning for Healthcare Systems: Foundations and Applications Year: 2023 Document Type: Article