Simulation Research on COVID-19 Transmission and Control Measures Based on SEIiRD Model

ABSTRACT

With the spread of the novel coronavirus pneumonia around the world, the data and transmission mechanism are analyzed. The SEIiRD model is constructed based on the existing SEIRD model, and the infected population is divided into asymptomatic infections, mild infections, severe infections and critical infections. The impact of the transmission rate of different infected people on the development of the epidemic was analyzed. Simulation experiments were carried out on the basis of fitting real data, and it was found that the main infected populations that affected the discovery of the epidemic were asymptomatic and mildly infected. On this basis, the transmission rate of different asymptomatic and mildly infected people was further analyzed. The impact of different intervention times on the number of infections and deaths was simulated. Results show that the model can effectively simulate the spread of COVID-19 and provide decision-making support to the departments to implement corresponding epidemic prevention and control strategies. © 2022 Acta Simulata Systematica Sinica. All rights reserved.