Evaluation and Prediction of Coupling Coordinated Development of Compound System of Key State-owned Forest Region in Daxing'anling, Heilongjiang Province

ABSTRACT

Coordination is an important part of the new development philosophy. Promoting the coordinated development is the main goal of deepening the reform and development in state-owned forest region. Aiming to provide scientific basis and theoretical supports for promoting the continuous deepening of reform of state-owned forest region and realizing comprehensive and high-quality coordinated development, the key state-owned forest region in Daxing'anling, Heilongjiang Province was chosen as the research object. A compound system covering ecological conservation, industrial development, enterprise management, well-being of the people and support capability was constructed. The coupling coordination model was used to quantitatively evaluate the coupling coordination status of the compound system from 2000 to 2020. The Grey Markov model was used to predict the trend of coupling coordination development in this compound system from 2021 to 2022. Results show that, after 21-year of transformation and development, the development index of each subsystem of state-owned forest region in Daxing'anling, Heilongjiang Province has been changed, however, the process were different among subsystems. The growth rates of the subsystems of well-being of the people and resource conservation have been high, while the subsystems of enterprise management and the support capability have been lagged dramatically behind. The development stage of coupling coordination of the compound system has changed from misalignment to coordination, nevertheless, the coordinated development level was regressive in recent years due to certain factors such as policy, COVID-19, etc. It is predicted that by 2022, the development stage of coupling coordination of compound system will be recovered to the benign coordinated development type, however, there is still a big gap before it reaches the high-quality coordinated development type. It is suggested that the existing support policies and inputs should be kept stable, moreover, the enterprise management and support capability should be strengthened, in order to promote the stable and high-quality coupling coordinated development in the key state-owned forest regions in Daxing'anling, Heilongjiang Province. © 2022, China Environmental Science Press. All rights reserved.