Forecasting of COVID-19 incidence in Ukraine using the method of exponential smoothing.
Folia Med Cracov
; 62(1): 103-120, 2022 06 29.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2026310
ABSTRACT
Coronavirus infection (COVID-19) is a highly infectious disease of viral etiology. SARS-CoV-2 virus was first identified during the investigation of the outbreak of respiratory disease in Wuhan, China in December 2019. And already on March 11, 2020 COVID-19 in the world was characterized by the WHO as a pandemic. In Ukraine the situation with incidence COVID-19 remains difficult. The purpose of this study is to to develop a mathematical forecasting model for COVID-19 incidence in Ukraine using an exponential smoothing method. The article analyzes reports on basic COVID-19 incidence rates from 29.02.2019 to 01.10.2021. In order to determine the forecast levels of statistical indicators that characterize the epidemic process of COVID-19 the method of exponential smoothing was used. It is expected that from 29.02.2019 to 01.10.2021 the epidemic situation of COVID-19 incidence will stabilize. The indicator of "active patients" will range from 159.04 to 353.63 per 100 thousand people. The indicator of "hospitalized patients" can reach 15.43 and "fatalities" â 1.87. The use of the method of exponential smoothing based on time series models for modeling the dynamics of COVID-19 incidence allows to develop and implement scientifically sound methods in order to prevent, quickly prepare health care institutions for hospitalization.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Etiology study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
Folia Med Cracov
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Fmc.2022.141694
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