COVID-19 Crisis and Supply Side Bottlenecks in the EU. Shorter and Longer Term Prospects

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 shock affected the global economy mainly through the col-lapse of demand, labour supply and industrial output, supply chains, commodity prices, international trade and capital flows. From the second half of 2020, various bottlenecks (logistical disruptions;shortages of raw materials and parts) in the EU economy have had a growing impact on growth. Following the recurrent pandemic shocks, the war shock has caused further severe supply-side disruptions from February 2022 onwards, in particular in raw materials markets (including energy sources and agricultural raw materials) and international logistics. Supply shortages in the EU have not only a one-off but also a ripple effect throughout the economy. Spill-over effects across Member States are of great importance. Together, the shortages of production inputs can have a significant negative impact on output and the recovery of the economy. At the same time, supply-side shocks can have a significant impact on the restructuring of supply chains, the deepening of green and digital transformation, and productivity growth. © 2022, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research. All rights reserved.