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Tracking changes in SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a novel outpatient sentinel surveillance system in Chicago, USA.
Richardson, Reese; Jorgensen, Emile; Arevalo, Philip; Holden, Tobias M; Gostic, Katelyn M; Pacilli, Massimo; Ghinai, Isaac; Lightner, Shannon; Cobey, Sarah; Gerardin, Jaline.
  • Richardson R; Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA.
  • Jorgensen E; Chicago Department of Public Health, Chicago, IL, USA.
  • Arevalo P; Chicago Department of Public Health, Chicago, IL, USA.
  • Holden TM; Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
  • Gostic KM; Department of Preventive Medicine and Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, USA.
  • Pacilli M; Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
  • Ghinai I; Chicago Department of Public Health, Chicago, IL, USA.
  • Lightner S; Chicago Department of Public Health, Chicago, IL, USA.
  • Cobey S; Illinois Department of Public Health, Springfield, IL, USA.
  • Gerardin J; Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 5547, 2022 09 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2036824
ABSTRACT
Public health indicators typically used for COVID-19 surveillance can be biased or lag changing community transmission patterns. In this study, we investigate whether sentinel surveillance of recently symptomatic individuals receiving outpatient diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 could accurately assess the instantaneous reproductive number R(t) and provide early warning of changes in transmission. We use data from community-based diagnostic testing sites in the United States city of Chicago. Patients tested at community-based diagnostic testing sites between September 2020 and June 2021, and reporting symptom onset within four days preceding their test, formed the sentinel population. R(t) calculated from sentinel cases agreed well with R(t) from other indicators. Retrospectively, trends in sentinel cases did not precede trends in COVID-19 hospital admissions by any identifiable lead time. In deployment, sentinel surveillance held an operational recency advantage of nine days over hospital admissions. The promising performance of opportunistic sentinel surveillance suggests that deliberately designed outpatient sentinel surveillance would provide robust early warning of increasing transmission.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Diagnostic study / Observational study Topics: Variants Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-022-33317-6

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Diagnostic study / Observational study Topics: Variants Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-022-33317-6