Forecasting Trend of Coronavirus Disease 2019 using Multi-Task Weighted TSK Fuzzy System

ABSTRACT

Artificial intelligence-(AI) based fog/edge computing has become a promising paradigm for infectious disease. Various AI algorithms are embedded in cooperative fog/edge devices to construct medical Internet of Things environments, infectious disease forecast systems, smart health, and so on. However, these systems are usually done in isolation, which is called single-task learning. They do not consider the correlation and relationship between multiple/different tasks, so some common information in the model parameters or data characteristics is lost. In this study, each data center in fog/edge computing is considered as a task in the multi-task learning framework. In such a learning framework, a multi-task weighted Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy system, called MW-TSKFS, is developed to forecast the trend of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). MW-TSKFS provides a multi-task learning strategy for both antecedent and consequent parameters of fuzzy rules. First, a multi-task weighted fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm is developed for antecedent parameter learning, which extracts the public information among all tasks and the private information of each task. By sharing the public cluster centroid and public membership matrix, the differences of commonality and individuality can be further exploited. For consequent parameter learning of MW-TSKFS, a multi-task collaborative learning mechanism is developed based on ϵ-insensitive criterion and L2 norm penalty term, which can enhance the generalization and forecasting ability of the proposed fuzzy system. The experimental results on the real COVID-19 time series show that the forecasting tend model based on multi-task the weighted TSK fuzzy system has a high application value. © 2021 Association for Computing Machinery.