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COVID's collateral damage: likelihood of measles resurgence in the United States.
Thakur, Mugdha; Zhou, Richard; Mohan, Mukundan; Marathe, Achla; Chen, Jiangzhuo; Hoops, Stefan; Machi, Dustin; Lewis, Bryan; Vullikanti, Anil.
  • Thakur M; Biocomplexity Institute, Town Center Four, 994 Research Park Boulevard, Charlottesville, VA, 22904, USA. mat3kk@virginia.edu.
  • Zhou R; Biocomplexity Institute, Town Center Four, 994 Research Park Boulevard, Charlottesville, VA, 22904, USA.
  • Mohan M; Biocomplexity Institute, Town Center Four, 994 Research Park Boulevard, Charlottesville, VA, 22904, USA.
  • Marathe A; Biocomplexity Institute, Town Center Four, 994 Research Park Boulevard, Charlottesville, VA, 22904, USA.
  • Chen J; Biocomplexity Institute, Town Center Four, 994 Research Park Boulevard, Charlottesville, VA, 22904, USA.
  • Hoops S; Biocomplexity Institute, Town Center Four, 994 Research Park Boulevard, Charlottesville, VA, 22904, USA.
  • Machi D; Biocomplexity Institute, Town Center Four, 994 Research Park Boulevard, Charlottesville, VA, 22904, USA.
  • Lewis B; Biocomplexity Institute, Town Center Four, 994 Research Park Boulevard, Charlottesville, VA, 22904, USA.
  • Vullikanti A; Biocomplexity Institute, Town Center Four, 994 Research Park Boulevard, Charlottesville, VA, 22904, USA.
BMC Infect Dis ; 22(1): 743, 2022 Sep 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2038667
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

Lockdowns imposed throughout the US to control the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in all routine immunizations rates, including the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine. It is feared that post-lockdown, these reduced MMR rates will lead to a resurgence of measles.

METHODS:

To measure the potential impact of reduced MMR vaccination rates on measles outbreak, this research examines several counterfactual scenarios in pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 era. An agent-based modeling framework is used to simulate the spread of measles on a synthetic yet realistic social network of Virginia. The change in vulnerability of various communities to measles due to reduced MMR rate is analyzed.

RESULTS:

Results show that a decrease in vaccination rate [Formula see text] has a highly non-linear effect on the number of measles cases and this effect grows exponentially beyond a threshold [Formula see text]. At low vaccination rates, faster isolation of cases and higher compliance to home-isolation are not enough to control the outbreak. The overall impact on urban and rural counties is proportional to their population size but the younger children, African Americans and American Indians are disproportionately infected and hence are more vulnerable to the reduction in the vaccination rate.

CONCLUSIONS:

At low vaccination rates, broader interventions are needed to control the outbreak. Identifying the cause of the decline in vaccination rates (e.g., low income) can help design targeted interventions which can dampen the disproportional impact on more vulnerable populations and reduce disparities in health. Per capita burden of the potential measles resurgence is equivalent in the rural and the urban communities and hence proportionally equitable public health resources should be allocated to rural regions.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 / Measles Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study Topics: Long Covid / Vaccines Limits: Child / Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: BMC Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S12879-022-07703-w

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 / Measles Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study Topics: Long Covid / Vaccines Limits: Child / Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: BMC Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S12879-022-07703-w