Scenario analysis on carbon emissions of Hubei Province in 14th five-year plan under epidemic situation

ABSTRACT

This paper discussed the current hot topics regarding whether Hubei Province can attain the target of carbon emission reduction in the wake of the impacts of novel coronavirus epidemic(COVID-19). To address the issue, analysis was made based on the total energy consumption and structural status of the Province, and the methods of Co integration regression and the Markov chain analysis were used to predict the growths of GDP, energy consumption and carbon emissions in Hubei Province over the coming period of 2020 to 2025. In addition, according to the different impacts of the epidemic on regional economy, three scenarios--the baseline scenario, low-speed scenario and high-speed scenario, were divided, and the carbon emission intensity and carbon emission peak were analyzed, respectively. The analysis concluded that under different scenarios, the total carbon emission of Hubei Province at the end of the 14th Five Year Plan period must be controlled within the range of 46 178.99 to 49 346.39 million tons, and in this way, the cumulative declining rate of carbon emission intensity can reach 19.62%-32.60%;and only through the active action taken by the government, with the scenario of medium to high speed economic development and optimizing the industrial structure can the Province attain the target of reducing carbon emission intensity by 20% in the 14th Five Year Plan period. In conclusion, under any of the above three scenarios, COVID-19 will not negatively affect attaining the target of the peak per capita carbon emission in Hubei Province, and the target is expected to reach prior to the year 2030.