Transmission Paths of COVID-19 Impact on Energy Supply and Production Chain in Vietnam

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the energy supply chain and some key economic sectors of the Vietnamese economy in order to assist Vietnamese policymakers in solving the extremely difficult issues of whether or not the government should limit the energy supply when the economic demand falls. The researcher applies the Structure Path Analysis method to evaluate the impact of the energy supply chain on the main business sectors of the economy from 2015 to 2020;and the Constrained Fixed method Price Multiplier to determine the effect of COVID19 on the energy supply chain before and after the epidemic. The results show that when the government is forced to limit the supply chain of coal, oil and electricity by 10-15%, it does not make much impact on the economy. However, if the government limits the supply chain by 20-25%, then it will have negative effect on the major industries of the economy, especially tourism, trade, construction, transportation and public services. The study also recommends how policymakers should limit the energy supply chain to a safe range for the economy of less than 15%.