Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on carbon emissions from the road transport sector in China

ABSTRACT

The outbreak and spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has altered transport patterns in China, leading to significant changes in energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This study assessed the spatiotemporal characteristics of transport-related CO2 emissions at the provincial level in China during the COVID-19 pandemic. Provincial-level time-series emissions were estimated based on monthly transport demand data, including both passenger and freight transport demand in China’s 31 provinces, as well as mode share, technology mix, energy intensity, and emission factor data obtained from an energy system model. Spatial autocorrelation and hot spot analyses of CO2 emissions were then conducted to detect the regional disparities and spatial clusters of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on CO2 emissions. By assessing how transport emissions responded to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, a series of policy implications were devised that could provide a future decarbonization pathway.