Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 2;peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]
Wellcome open research
; 6, 2021.
Article
in English
| EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-2046342
ABSTRACT
Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.
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Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
EuropePMC
Language:
English
Journal:
Wellcome open research
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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