Quantitative analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on ship visiting behaviors to ports- A framework and a case study

ABSTRACT

Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak leads to a significant downturn in the global economy and supply chain. In the maritime sector, trade volume slumped by 3.8% in 2020 compared with 2019. To explore the impacts of COVID-19 on ship visiting behaviors, a framework is proposed to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on port traffic using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. Firstly, a ship travel behavior-based model is proposed to identify the vessel anchoring and berthing. Then, the diversity in vessel anchoring and berthing time are analyzed, reflecting the impact of COVID-19. The port congestion caused by COVID-19 is quantified by accounting for the number of visiting ships and their residence time. Finally, a case study is carried out on vessels in the Beibu Gulf, China, operating from 2019 to 2020. The results show that the average anchoring time and berthing time increase by 53% and 26% for cargo ships and by 90% and 63% for oil tankers after the outbreak of COVID-19 compared with that before COVID-19. And the density of ships increases in the port area in 2020. Accordingly, the relevant improvements and countermeasures are proposed to reduce the adverse impact of the epidemic on the port navigation system. The paper has the potential to provide a reference for port management and improving port navigation efficiency in the post-pandemic era.