Your browser doesn't support javascript.
A comparison and calibration of integer and fractional-order models of COVID-19 with stratified public response.
Fouladi, Somayeh; Kohandel, Mohammad; Eastman, Brydon.
  • Fouladi S; Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave W, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada.
  • Kohandel M; Department of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematical Sciences, Shahrekord University, P.O. Box 115, Shahrekord, Iran.
  • Eastman B; Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave W, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada.
Math Biosci Eng ; 19(12): 12792-12813, 2022 09 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2055535
ABSTRACT
The spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Canadian province of Ontario has resulted in millions of infections and tens of thousands of deaths to date. Correspondingly, the implementation of modeling to inform public health policies has proven to be exceptionally important. In this work, we expand a previous model of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Ontario, "Modeling the impact of a public response on the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, " to include the discretized, Caputo fractional derivative in the susceptible compartment. We perform identifiability and sensitivity analysis on both the integer-order and fractional-order SEIRD model and contrast the quality of the fits. We note that both methods produce fits of similar qualitative strength, though the inclusion of the fractional derivative operator quantitatively improves the fits by almost 27% corroborating the appropriateness of fractional operators for the purposes of phenomenological disease forecasting. In contrasting the fit procedures, we note potential simplifications for future study. Finally, we use all four models to provide an estimate of the time-dependent basic reproduction number for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Ontario between January 2020 and February 2021.
Subject(s)
Keywords

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Qualitative research Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Math Biosci Eng Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Mbe.2022597

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS


Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Qualitative research Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Math Biosci Eng Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Mbe.2022597