A comparison and calibration of integer and fractional-order models of COVID-19 with stratified public response.
Math Biosci Eng
; 19(12): 12792-12813, 2022 09 01.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2055535
ABSTRACT
The spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Canadian province of Ontario has resulted in millions of infections and tens of thousands of deaths to date. Correspondingly, the implementation of modeling to inform public health policies has proven to be exceptionally important. In this work, we expand a previous model of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Ontario, "Modeling the impact of a public response on the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, " to include the discretized, Caputo fractional derivative in the susceptible compartment. We perform identifiability and sensitivity analysis on both the integer-order and fractional-order SEIRD model and contrast the quality of the fits. We note that both methods produce fits of similar qualitative strength, though the inclusion of the fractional derivative operator quantitatively improves the fits by almost 27% corroborating the appropriateness of fractional operators for the purposes of phenomenological disease forecasting. In contrasting the fit procedures, we note potential simplifications for future study. Finally, we use all four models to provide an estimate of the time-dependent basic reproduction number for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Ontario between January 2020 and February 2021.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Qualitative research
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
Math Biosci Eng
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Mbe.2022597
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS