Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV.

ABSTRACT

Objectives To estimate the basic reproduction number of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) and to provide support to epidemic preparedness and response. Methods Based on the susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) compartment model and the assumption that the infection cases with symptoms occurred before January 26, 2020 were resulted from free propagation without intervention, we estimated the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV according to the reported confirmed cases and suspected cases, as well as theoretical estimated number of infected cases by other research teams, together with some epidemiological determinants learned from the severe acute respiratory syndrome. Results The basic reproduction number fall between 2.8 to 3.3 by using the real-time reports on the number of 2019-nCoV infected cases from People's Daily in China, and fall between 3.2 and 3.9 on the basis of the predicted number of infected cases from international colleagues. Conclusions The early transmission capability of 2019-nCoV is close to or slightly higher than SARS. It is a controllable disease with moderate-high transmissibility. Timely and effective control measures are capable to quickly reduce further transmission. Copyright © 2020 West China University of Medical Science. All rights reserved.