Educational Trajectories of University Students in Russia: Analysis before The COVID-19 Pandemic and Development Trends

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 outbreak has significantly affected the education system. Both the labor market and the education market have undergone dramatic changes during the pandemic. A rather serious discrepancy between the structure of labor demand and the structure of graduates underlies the relevance of the present study. The paper aims to analyze the relevant fields of higher education, as well as to identify key trends in 2013-2020 admission campaigns to assess development prospects. In the course of the study, we put forward several hypotheses that were tested using the case study of Russian undergraduates with state-funded tuition. Structural and dynamic analysis of the 2013-2020 period indicated the growing demand from students for education in all fields except Social sciences. A comparison of the indicator of structural shifts between 2019 and 2020 shows a fundamental change in the demand for fields of educational training for Healthcare and medical sciences, the growth rate was 2.5 times. Considerable changes in the structure of supply were observed in social sciences (a drop in the percentage of enrolled students), engineering, technology and technical sciences (a rise in the percentage of enrolled students). However, with increased demand for engineering-technical programs in 2020, there was no similar increase in supply. Our hypothesis about a decline in demand and supply for the humanities was not confirmed. At the same time, we proved the hypothesis about an increase in applicants' demand for medical specialties by 9.4% in 2013-2020 and by 22.6% in the 2020 crisis year. The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the problem of the healthcare staffing shortage and the need to increase the number of students enrolled in medical education programs. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a profound impact on changes in learner profiles. The identified trends are pushing for a rethinking of the higher education system and the labor market in search for an optimal balance in educating staff.