A delayed modulation of solar ultraviolet radiation on the COVID-19 transmission reflects an incubation period

ABSTRACT

Laboratory experiments have revealed the meteorological sensitivity of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) virus. However, no consensus has been reached about how outdoor meteorological conditions modulate the virus transmission as it is also constrained by non-meteorological conditions. Here, we identify the outbreak's evolution stage, constrained least by non-meteorological conditions, by searching the maximum correlation coefficient between the ultraviolet flux and the growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases at the country level. At this least-constrained stage, the cumulative cases count around 1300-3200, and the count's daily growth rate correlates with the ultraviolet flux and temperature significantly (correlation coefficients r = -0.54 +/- 0.09 and -0.39 +/- 0.10 at p<0.01$$ p, respectively), but not with precipitation, humidity, and wind. The ultraviolet correlation exhibits a delay of about 7 days, providing a meteorological measure of the incubation period. Our work reveals a seasonality of COVID-19 and a high risk of a pandemic resurgence in winter, implying a need for seasonal adaption in public policies.