Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Susceptibility to Resurgent COVID-19 Outbreaks Following Vaccine Rollouts: A Modeling Study.
Neofotistos, Georgios; Angeli, Mattia; Mattheakis, Marios; Kaxiras, Efthimios.
  • Neofotistos G; Harvard J. A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
  • Angeli M; Harvard J. A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
  • Mattheakis M; Harvard J. A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
  • Kaxiras E; Harvard J. A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
Viruses ; 14(10)2022 10 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2071833
ABSTRACT
Using the recently proposed Susceptible-Asymptomatic-Infected-Vaccinated-Removed (SAIVR) model, we study the impact of key factors affecting COVID-19 vaccine rollout effectiveness and the susceptibility to resurgent epidemics. The SAIVR model expands the widely used Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) model for describing epidemics by adding compartments to include the asymptomatic infected (A) and the vaccinated (V) populations. We solve the model numerically to make predictions on the susceptibility to resurgent COVID-19 epidemics depending on initial vaccination coverage, importation loads, continuing vaccination, and more contagious SARS-CoV-2 variants, under persistent immunity and immunity waning conditions. The parameters of the model represent reported epidemiological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus such as the disease spread in countries with high levels of vaccination coverage. Our findings help explain how the combined effects of different vaccination coverage levels and waning immunity lead to distinct patterns of resurgent COVID-19 epidemics (either surges or endemic), which are observed in countries that implemented different COVID-19 health policies and achieved different vaccinated population plateaus after the vaccine rollouts in the first half of 2021.
Subject(s)
Keywords

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Influenza Vaccines / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines / Variants Limits: Humans Language: English Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: V14102237

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS


Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Influenza Vaccines / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines / Variants Limits: Humans Language: English Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: V14102237