Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Analysis of the Brunt of the Second and Third Waves on Patients in Western Uttar Pradesh

ABSTRACT

Background: The recent second wave and the latest third wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in India caused havoc on health infrastructure. However, there is a scarcity of studies from India and abroad that compare the second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to assess the factors like age, sex, and death comparison among diagnostically proven COVID-19 patients of the Meerut district in both waves. Methodology: A total of 297554 samples during the second wave (1st March 2021 to 30th June 2021) and 240655 during the third wave (1st January 2022 to 30th April 2022) were tested for reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in the Department of Microbiology, Lala Lajpat Rai Medical College, using The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) approved RT-PCR testing kits. The data like age, sex, place, follow-ups, etc. were recorded and data were analyzed statistically. Results: The RT-PCR positivity of 8.24% for COVID-19 in the second wave while 5.66% of patients in the third wave have been reported. The proportion of positive cases in children ≤10 years in the second and third wave were quite similar i.e., 3.59% and 3.40% respectively, whereas the proportion of positive cases in adolescents (10-20 years) was significantly higher (12.96%) in the third wave in contrast to the second wave (10.15%), while age group (41-60 years) is significantly less (26.65%) in proportion during the third wave in comparison to the second wave (29.50%). The proportion of positivity in young males has significantly increased in the third wave as compared to the second wave. The mortality also decreased significantly by 1/3rd of the second wave. Conclusion: The third wave showed low overall positivity (5.66%) as compared to the second wave (8.24%), while the brunt on young children was comparable to the second wave which was assumed to be higher. The mortality and hospitalization also decreased significantly in the second wave. Regular surveillance and analysis should continue to combat this pandemic.