A Novel Point Process Model for COVID-19: Multivariate Recursive Hawkes Process
Modeling and Simulation in Science, Engineering and Technology
; : 141-182, 2022.
Article
in English
| Scopus | ID: covidwho-2075197
ABSTRACT
This chapter presents a novel point process model for COVID-19 transmission—the multivariate recursive Hawkes process, which is an extension of the recursive Hawkes model to the multivariate case. Equivalently the model can be viewed as an extension of the multivariate Hawkes model to allow for varying productivity as in the recursive model. Several theoretical properties of this process are stated and proved, including the existence of the multivariate recursive counting process and formulas for the mean and variance. EM-based algorithms are explored for estimating parameters of parametric and semi-parametric forms of the model. Additionally, an algorithm is presented to reconstruct the process from imprecise event times. The performance of the algorithms on both synthetic and real COVID-19 data sets is illustrated through several experiments. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
Full text:
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Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
Scopus
Language:
English
Journal:
Modeling and Simulation in Science, Engineering and Technology
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
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