Analysis and Forecasting of COVID-19 Pandemic on Indian Health Care System During Summers 2021

ABSTRACT

Even after a year since COVID-19 pandemic originated, there are no concrete signs of slowing down of the virus any day now. The pandemic had an adverse effect on the healthcare system across the globe. It was assumed earlier that the hot summer weather will bring boon by decreasing the caseloads and easing down the stress on health care system worldwide. The purpose of this research is to assess the implications of this pandemic on the healthcare system in India and forecast overall active cases of COVID-19 in India using time series analysis. The data set used in the study spans to the 3 hottest months, from May, 2021 to July, 2021, thereby narrowing down the analysis of the pandemic to extreme summers of India. The popular time series Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was then extensively manoeuvred to observe the trend and predict results. It was observed that ARIMA (0, 2, 0) model was pretty pertinent in forecasting the active cases during summers in India. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.