Modelling of spatial infection spread through heterogeneous population: from lattice to partial differential equation models.
R Soc Open Sci
; 9(10): 220064, 2022 Oct.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2078024
ABSTRACT
We present a simple model for the spread of an infection that incorporates spatial variability in population density. Starting from first-principle considerations, we explore how a novel partial differential equation with state-dependent diffusion can be obtained. This model exhibits higher infection rates in the areas of higher population density-a feature that we argue to be consistent with epidemiological observations. The model also exhibits an infection wave, the speed of which varies with population density. In addition, we demonstrate the possibility that an infection can 'jump' (i.e. tunnel) across areas of low population density towards areas of high population density. We briefly touch upon the data reported for coronavirus spread in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia as a case example with a number of qualitatively similar features as our model. Lastly, we propose a number of generalizations of the model towards future studies.
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International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Observational study
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Prognostic study
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Qualitative research
Language:
English
Journal:
R Soc Open Sci
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
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