Deep learning of longitudinal chest X-ray and clinical variables predicts duration on ventilator and mortality in COVID-19 patients.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To use deep learning of serial portable chest X-ray (pCXR) and clinical variables to predict mortality and duration on invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. METHODS: This is a retrospective study. Serial pCXR and serial clinical variables were analyzed for data from day 1, day 5, day 1-3, day 3-5, or day 1-5 on IMV (110 IMV survivors and 76 IMV non-survivors). The outcome variables were duration on IMV and mortality. With fivefold cross-validation, the performance of the proposed deep learning system was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and correlation analysis. RESULTS: Predictive models using 5-consecutive-day data outperformed those using 3-consecutive-day and 1-day data. Prediction using data closer to the outcome was generally better (i.e., day 5 data performed better than day 1 data, and day 3-5 data performed better than day 1-3 data). Prediction performance was generally better for the combined pCXR and non-imaging clinical data than either alone. The combined pCXR and non-imaging data of 5 consecutive days predicted mortality with an accuracy of 85 ± 3.5% (95% confidence interval (CI)) and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.87 ± 0.05 (95% CI) and predicted the duration needed to be on IMV to within 2.56 ± 0.21 (95% CI) days on the validation dataset. CONCLUSIONS: Deep learning of longitudinal pCXR and clinical data have the potential to accurately predict mortality and duration on IMV in COVID-19 patients. Longitudinal pCXR could have prognostic value if these findings can be validated in a large, multi-institutional cohort.