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Economic forecasting in a pandemic: some evidence from Singapore.
Chow, Hwee Kwan; Choy, Keen Meng.
  • Chow HK; School of Economics, Singapore Management University, 90 Stamford Road, Singapore, 178903 Singapore.
  • Choy KM; Faculty of Economics, Soka University, 1-236 Tangi-cho, Hachioji-shi, Tokyo 192-8577 Japan.
Empir Econ ; : 1-20, 2022 Oct 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2293462
ABSTRACT
This paper aims to investigate whether the predictive performance and behaviour of professional forecasters are different during the COVID-19 pandemic as compared with the global financial crisis of 2008 and normal times. To this end, we use a survey of professional forecasters in Singapore collated by the central bank to analyse the forecasting records for GDP growth and CPI inflation for the period 2000Q1-2021Q4. We first examine the point forecasts to document the extent of forecast failure during the two crises and explore various explanations for it, such as leader-following and herding behaviour. Then, using percentile-based summary measures of probability distribution forecasts, we study how the degree of consensus and extent of subjective uncertainty among forecasters were affected by crisis conditions. A trend break is observed in the subjective uncertainty associated with growth projections after the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. In contrast, both subjective uncertainty and the degree of consensus in inflation projections were essentially unchanged in crises, suggesting that the short-term inflation expectations of forecasters were strongly anchored.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Empir Econ Year: 2022 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Empir Econ Year: 2022 Document Type: Article