Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020

ABSTRACT

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process in the Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model, and estimated the basic reproduction number R0 as 2.6 (95% CI 2.3-2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI 2.9-3.5) in the Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI 2.3-2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI 3.0-3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020, respectively.