Exploiting an early warning Nomogram for predicting the risk of ICU admission in patients with COVID-19: a multi-center study in China.
Scand J Trauma Resusc Emerg Med
; 28(1): 106, 2020 Oct 27.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2098375
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global public health emergency. Here, we developed and validated a practical model based on the data from a multi-center cohort in China for early identification and prediction of which patients will be admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).METHODS:
Data of 1087 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 were collected from 49 sites between January 2 and February 28, 2020, in Sichuan and Wuhan. Patients were randomly categorized into the training and validation cohorts (73). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and logistic regression analyzes were used to develop the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated for the C-index, calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness. Further, the nomogram was externally validated in a different cohort.RESULTS:
The individualized prediction nomogram included 6 predictors age, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, fever, and chronic kidney disease. The model demonstrated a high discriminative ability in the training cohort (C-index = 0.829), which was confirmed in the external validation cohort (C-index = 0.776). In addition, the calibration plots confirmed good concordance for predicting the risk of ICU admission. Decision curve analysis revealed that the prediction nomogram was clinically useful.CONCLUSION:
We established an early prediction model incorporating clinical characteristics that could be quickly obtained on hospital admission, even in community health centers. This model can be conveniently used to predict the individual risk for ICU admission of patients with COVID-19 and optimize the use of limited resources.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Betacoronavirus
/
Hospitalization
/
Intensive Care Units
Type of study:
Cohort study
/
Diagnostic study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Adult
/
Aged
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Scand J Trauma Resusc Emerg Med
Journal subject:
Emergency Medicine
/
Traumatology
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S13049-020-00795-w
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