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COVID-19 and excess mortality in Russia: Regional estimates of life expectancy losses in 2020 and excess deaths in 2021.
Scherbov, Sergei; Gietel-Basten, Stuart; Ediev, Dalkhat; Shulgin, Sergey; Sanderson, Warren.
  • Scherbov S; Population and Just Societies Program, International Institute of Applied Systems and Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Gietel-Basten S; Division of Social Science, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, China.
  • Ediev D; Department of Humanities and Social Science, Khalifa University of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
  • Shulgin S; Population and Just Societies Program, International Institute of Applied Systems and Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Sanderson W; North-Caucasian State Academy, Institute for Applied Mathematics and Information Technologies, Cherkessk, Russia.
PLoS One ; 17(11): e0275967, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2098748
ABSTRACT
Accurately counting the human cost of the COVID-19 at both the national and regional level is a policy priority. The Russian Federation currently reports one of the higher COVID-19 mortality rates in the world; but estimates of mortality differ significantly. Using a statistical method accounting for changes in the population age structure, we present the first national and regional estimates of excess mortality for 2021; calculations of excess mortality by age, gender, and urban/rural status for 2020; and mean remaining years of life expectancy lost at the regional level. We estimate that there were 351,158 excess deaths in 2020 and 678,022 in 2021 in the Russian Federation; and, in 2020, around 2.0 years of life expectancy lost. While the Russian Federation exhibits very high levels of excess mortality compared to other countries, there is a wide degree of regional variation in 2021, excess deaths expressed as a percentage of expected deaths at the regional level range from 27% to 52%. Life expectancy loss is generally greater for males; while excess mortality is greater in urban areas. For Russia as whole, an average person who died due to the pandemic in 2020 would have otherwise lived for a further 14 more years (and as high as 18 years in some regions), disproving the widely held view that excess mortality during the pandemic period was concentrated among those with few years of life remaining-especially for females. At a regional level, less densely populated, more remote regions, rural regions appear to have fared better regarding excess mortality and life expectancy loss-however, a part of this differential could be owing to measurement issues. The calculations demonstrate more clearly the true degree of the human cost of the pandemic in the Russian Federation.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Limits: Female / Humans / Male Country/Region as subject: Asia / Europa Language: English Journal: PLoS One Journal subject: Science / Medicine Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Journal.pone.0275967

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Limits: Female / Humans / Male Country/Region as subject: Asia / Europa Language: English Journal: PLoS One Journal subject: Science / Medicine Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Journal.pone.0275967