Drivers of Spatial Expansions of Vampire Bat Rabies in Colombia.

ABSTRACT

Spatial expansions of vampire bat-transmitted rabies (VBR) are increasing the risk of lethal infections in livestock and humans in Latin America. Identifying the drivers of these expansions could improve current approaches to surveillance and prevention. We aimed to identify if VBR spatial expansions are occurring in Colombia and test factors associated with these expansions. We analyzed 2336 VBR outbreaks in livestock reported to the National Animal Health Agency (Instituto Colombiano Agropecuario-ICA) affecting 297 municipalities from 2000-2019. The area affected by VBR changed through time and was correlated to the reported number of outbreaks each year. Consistent with spatial expansions, some municipalities reported VBR outbreaks for the first time each year and nearly half of the estimated infected area in 2010-2019 did not report outbreaks in the previous decade. However, the number of newly infected municipalities decreased between 2000-2019, suggesting decelerating spatial expansions. Municipalities infected later had lower cattle populations and were located further from the local reporting offices of the ICA. Reducing the VBR burden in Colombia requires improving vaccination coverage in both endemic and newly infected areas while improving surveillance capacity in increasingly remote areas with lower cattle populations where rabies is emerging.