COVID-19 transmission in Africa: estimating the role of meteorological factors.

ABSTRACT

Climate variables play a critical role in COVID-19's spread. Therefore, this research aims to analyze the effect of average temperature and relative humidity on the propagation of COVID-19 in Africa's first four affected countries (South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia, and Ethiopia). As a result, policymakers should develop effective COVID-19 spread control strategies. For each country, using daily data of confirmed cases and weather variables from May 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, generalized linear models (Poisson regression) and general linear models were estimated. According to the findings, the rising average temperature causes COVID-19 daily new cases to increase in South Africa and Ethiopia while decreasing in Morocco and Tunisia. However, in Tunisia, the relative humidity and daily new cases of COVID-19 are positively correlated, while in the other three countries, they are negatively associated.