Modelling the Effect of Vaccination Program and Inter-state Travel in the Spread of COVID-19 in Malaysia.
Acta Biotheor
; 71(1): 2, 2022 Nov 17.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2238891
ABSTRACT
A modified version of the SEIR model with the effects of vaccination and inter-state movement is proposed to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in Malaysia. A mathematical analysis of the proposed model was performed to derive the basic reproduction number. To enhance the model's forecasting capabilities, the model parameters were estimated using the Nelder-Mead simplex method by fitting the model outputs to the observed data. Our results showed a good fit between the model outputs and available data, where the model was then able to perform short-term predictions. In line with the rapid vaccination program, our model predicted that the COVID-19 cases in the country would decrease by the end of August. Furthermore, our findings indicated that relaxing travel restrictions from a highly vaccinated region to a low vaccinated region would result in an epidemic outbreak.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Epidemics
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Animals
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Acta Biotheor
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S10441-022-09453-3
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