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Effects of hydrometeorological and other factors on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number in three contiguous countries of Tropical Andean South America: a spatiotemporally disaggregated time series analysis.
Colston, Josh M; Hinson, Patrick; Nguyen, Nhat-Lan H; Chen, Yen Ting; Badr, Hamada S; Kerr, Gaige H; Gardner, Lauren M; Martin, David N; Quispe, Antonio M; Schiaffino, Francesca; Kosek, Margaret N; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.
  • Colston JM; Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA.
  • Hinson P; College of Arts and Sciences, University of Virginia, Virginia, USA.
  • Nguyen NH; College of Arts and Sciences, University of Virginia, Virginia, USA.
  • Chen YT; Department of Emergency Medicine, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Tainan, Taiwan.
  • Badr HS; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Baltimore, 21218, MA, USA.
  • Kerr GH; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC.
  • Gardner LM; Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
  • Martin DN; Claude Moore Health Sciences Library, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Virginia, USA.
  • Quispe AM; Postgraduate School, Universidad Continental, Lima, Peru.
  • Schiaffino F; Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.
  • Kosek MN; Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health and Public Health Sciences, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA.
  • Zaitchik BF; Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health and Public Health Sciences, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA.
IJID Reg ; 2022 Nov 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2239896
ABSTRACT

Background:

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused societal disruption globally and South America has been hit harder than other lower-income regions. This study modeled effects of 6 weather variables on district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers (R t ) in three contiguous countries of Tropical Andean South America (Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru), adjusting for environmental, policy, healthcare infrastructural and other factors.

Methods:

Daily time-series data on SARS-CoV-2 infections were sourced from health authorities of the three countries at the smallest available administrative level. R t values were calculated and merged by date and unit ID with variables from a Unified COVID-19 dataset and other publicly available sources for May - December 2020. Generalized additive models were fitted.

Findings:

Relative humidity and solar radiation were inversely associated with SARS-CoV-2 R t . Days with radiation above 1,000 KJ/m2 saw a 1.3%, and those with humidity above 50%, a 0.9% reduction in R t . Transmission was highest in densely populated districts, and lowest in districts with poor healthcare access and on days with least population mobility. Wind speed, temperature, region, aggregate government policy response and population age structure had little impact. The fully adjusted model explained 4.3% of R t variance.

Interpretation:

Dry atmospheric conditions of low humidity increase, and higher solar radiation decrease district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers, effects that are comparable in magnitude to population factors like lockdown compliance. Weather monitoring could be incorporated into disease surveillance and early warning systems in conjunction with more established risk indicators and surveillance measures.

Funding:

NASA's Group on Earth Observations Work Programme (16-GEO16-0047).
Keywords

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Variants Language: English Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.ijregi.2022.11.007

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Variants Language: English Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.ijregi.2022.11.007