Excess Mortality in the Siberian Regions in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Dynamics and Affecting Factors

ABSTRACT

Introduction. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a strong negative impact on demographic processes in Russian regions. Mortality has increased significantly, the life expectancy has declined, and the natural decline in the population over the two pandemic years has reached ultra-high indicators. The article aims to analyze the dynamics of the mortality growth in the regions of Siberia for 2020-2021 and assess the impact of demographic, socio-economic, medical and infrastructure factors on it. Materials and Methods. The study is based on official statistical data for individual constituent entities of Russia published by Rosstat (Russian Statistics Agency). The regression and correlation analysis was used to identify the most significant factors that determined the increase and interregional differences in mortality displacement rates. Results. For the Siberian regions the significant factors that determine the increase and interregional differences in mortality displacement include the median age of the population;proportion of children in the age distribution structure;population of the regional capital;as well as the share of extractive and manufacturing industries in regional employment pattern. The median age of 39 and above, the low proportion of minors, and the specialization of a particular region in the manufacturing industry (implying more intensive contacts of employees) contribute to a significant increase in mortality during the pandemic. Regions of Siberia with a relatively low rate of mortality displacement have a younger age distribution structure and economic specialization in the extraction of minerals (contacts of the labor force are rather less frequent). The factors of urbanization level, average per capita income of the population, poverty incidence, general unemployment rate, number of hospital beds, and the number of doctors do not show a significant relationship with the increase in mortality. Discussion and Conclusion. The analysis established the causes of a significant increase in mortality in the Siberian regions. The leading role in it was played by demographic factors and economic specialization of the region. The results obtained can be used in the implementation of social and demographic policy aimed at maintaining the population health in regions with different demographic and socio-economic situations.