Bidirectional Data-Driven Trajectory Prediction for Intelligent Maritime Traffic

ABSTRACT

Intelligent maritime transportation is one of the most promising enabling technologies for promoting trade efficiency and releasing the physical labor force. The trajectory prediction method is the foundation to guarantee collision avoidance and route optimization for ship transportation. This article proposes a bidirectional data-driven trajectory prediction method based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) spatio-temporal data to improve the accuracy of ship trajectory prediction and reduce the risk of accidents. Our study constructs an encoder-decoder network driven by a forward and reverse comprehensive historical trajectory and then fuses the characteristics of the sub-network to predict the ship trajectory. The AIS historical trajectory data of US West Coast ships are employed to investigate the feasibility of the proposed method. Compared with the current methods, the proposed approach lessens the prediction error by studying the comprehensive historical trajectory, and 60.28% has reduced the average prediction error. The ocean and port trajectory data are analyzed in maritime transportation before and after COVID-19. The prediction error in the port area is reduced by 95.17% than the data before the epidemic. Our work helps the prediction of maritime ship trajectory, provides valuable services for maritime safety, and performs detailed insights for the analysis of trade conditions in different sea areas before and after the epidemic.