A Machine Learning-Based Risk Prediction Model for Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder during the COVID-19 Pandemic.
Medicina (Kaunas)
; 58(12)2022 Nov 22.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2123748
ABSTRACT
Background and Objectives:
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused global public panic, leading to severe mental illnesses, such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This study aimed to establish a risk prediction model of PTSD based on a machine learning algorithm to provide a basis for the extensive assessment and prediction of the PTSD risk status in adults during a pandemic. Materials andMethods:
Model indexes were screened based on the cognitive-phenomenological-transactional (CPT) theoretical model. During the study period (1 March to 15 March 2020), 2067 Chinese residents were recruited using Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap). Socio-demographic characteristics, PTSD, depression, anxiety, social support, general self-efficacy, coping style, and other indicators were collected in order to establish a neural network model to predict and evaluate the risk of PTSD.Results:
The research findings showed that 368 of the 2067 participants (17.8%) developed PTSD. The model correctly predicted 90.0% (262) of the outcomes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and their associated area under the ROC curve (AUC) values suggested that the prediction model possessed an accurate discrimination ability. In addition, depression, anxiety, age, coping style, whether the participants had seen a doctor during the COVID-19 quarantine period, and self-efficacy were important indexes.Conclusions:
The high prediction accuracy of the model, constructed based on a machine learning algorithm, indicates its applicability in screening the public mental health status during the COVID-19 pandemic quickly and effectively. This model could also predict and identify high-risk groups early to prevent the worsening of PTSD symptoms.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Qualitative research
/
Randomized controlled trials
Topics:
Long Covid
Limits:
Adult
/
Humans
Language:
English
Journal subject:
Medicine
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Medicina58121704
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