Comparison of Hawkes and Seir Models for the Spread of Covid-19

ABSTRACT

Two models that capture the spread of infectious diseases, the Hawkes point process model and the SEIR compartmental model, are compared with regard to their use in modeling the COVID-19 pandemic. The physical plausibility of the SEIR model is weighed against the parsimony and flexibility of the Hawkes model. The mathematical connection between Hawkes and SEIR models is described.