A Bayesian analysis based on multivariate stochastic volatility model: evidence from green stocks

ABSTRACT

Green stocks are companies environmental protective and friendly. We test Green stock index in Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index as safe-havens for global investors. Suitable multivariate-SV model and Bayesian method are used to estimate the spillover effect between different assets among local and global markets. We choose multivariate volatility model because it can efficiently simulate the spillover effect by using machine learning MCMC method. The results show that the Environmental Protection Index (EPI) of Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) and China Securities Index (CSI) have no significant volatility spillover from Shanghai Stock index, S &P index, gold price, oil future prices of USA and China. During COVID-19 pandemic, we find Green stock index is a suitable safe-haven with low volatility spillover. Green stock indexes has a strongly one-way spillover to the crude oil future price. Environmentally friendly investor can use diversity green assets to provide a low risk investment portfolio in EPI stock market. The DCGCt-MSV model using machine learning of MCMC method is accurate and outperform others in Bayes parameter estimation.